5 questions as Trump returns to Ariz. in a changed race

Former President Donald Trump is returning Thursday to Arizona, trying to regain momentum as Democrats wrap up their nominating convention and as independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. contemplates quitting the race.
Trump’s second visit to the state this summer bookends a period of historic upheaval and comes as his campaign is trying to reverse Vice President Kamala Harris’ relative dominance on political news.
As Trump is set to arrive, here are answers to five of the more pressing questions ahead of his latest rally.
Trump was scheduled to arrive in Arizona Thursday morning and head to Montezuma Pass in Cochise County, where he was to hold a border security-themed event on the same day that Harris will draw most of the attention with her nomination acceptance speech.
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Sierra Vista Mayor Clea McCaa and police Chief Chris Hiser were expected to join Trump for his visit.
For Trump, it was a repeat of his 2020 campaign strategy to try and cut into the focus on Democrats during their convention and do so touting the border security issue that is at the center of his candidacy.
Four years ago, Trump stood in triple-digit heat at an airplane hangar in Yuma during the Democratic National Convention. He argued then that now-President Joe Biden was mentally unfit for the White House and that a “Biden-Harris plan is a step-by-step recipe for abolishing America’s borders.”
On Friday, Trump is hoping for a definitive reset in the presidential race against Harris.
In the morning, Kennedy was to hold a news conference in Phoenix billed as the “path forward” in his long-shot bid for the White House. His running mate, Nicole Shanahan, said in a podcast interview Tuesday they were considering quitting the race and endorsing Trump.
Kennedy has been an enigmatic X factor in the race all along. He is underfinanced and, despite belonging to the most storied family in American politics, has never been more than a gadfly or potential spoiler in the race.
He may be drawing more support from voters who would otherwise back Trump, but his smallish numbers in polls suggest his departure may serve as little more than a blip in the race.
Trump could use the Kennedy announcement in Phoenix as a boost when he holds a rally at Desert Diamond Arena in Glendale later in the afternoon.
Trump is famously obsessed with TV ratings, opinion polls and crowd sizes.
Former President Barack Obama joked about that very thing on Tuesday at the DNC.
Harris and her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, held a Friday rally at the same Glendale arena two weeks ago, and it was one of the largest political gatherings in Arizona history.
That comes as polling shows Arizona is back in play for Democrats after appearing to slip out of their reach when Biden topped the ticket.
Trump needs to win Arizona, so, in that sense, any rally would be important. But especially after the attention given to Harris’ crowd size, Trump doubtless wants to reestablish himself as the state’s top political draw.
All of a sudden, the crowd size in Glendale will be a basic measure of Trump’s vitality in Arizona.
It’s hard to say, in a way that wasn’t the case when Trump last visited in June.
Recent public polling has run from Harris ahead by 5 percentage points to Trump leading by 4.
By comparison, Trump led every public poll involving him and Biden in Arizona tracked by the nonpartisan website FiveThirtyEight in June and July, sometimes by double digits.
The reality is the shake-up of the Democratic ticket, followed by the party’s national convention, has likely boosted Harris’ standing in the polls. The convention ends Thursday, and public opinion could be more stable after that, at least until the presidential candidates’ Sept. 10 debate in Philadelphia.
Pollsters won’t have a clean look at public opinion for at least another week, leaving the state’s uncertain status unchanged for at least a few more days.
The major political ratings organizations all list Arizona as a toss-up at the moment.
It’s still big.
There aren’t many swing states, but Arizona seems to be one of them.
Biden’s narrowest victory in 2020 was in Arizona, by fewer than 11,000 votes.
When Trump appeared to be gliding to a win over Biden in Arizona, Trump’s campaign really hadn’t invested in a significant ground operation and had been relatively detached from the state.
He canceled two prior visits to Arizona earlier this year. The first was in January just after news of a secret recording involving the then-chief of the Arizona Republican Party trying to convince Kari Lake not to run for the U.S. Senate.
Trump stayed away until June 6, when he visited Dream City Church in Phoenix.
Campaign ad figures tracked by the nonpartisan AdImpact show Harris’ campaign plans to outspend Trump in Arizona by about $16 million to $3 million at this point.
Trump’s campaign likely feels pressure to invest more time and money in Arizona.
At the same time, Harris’ campaign is seeing better polling across several Sun Belt states that suggests they will want to spend time and money in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina in a way that Biden’s campaign did not.
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